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The New York Mets will meet the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 1 of the National League Championship Series at Dodgers Stadium. These are the final two teams in the Senior Circuit as we continue our NLCS odds series and make a Mets-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Mets-Dodgers Game 1 Projected Starters
Kodai Senga vs. Jack Flaherty
Kodai Senga (1-0) with a 3.38 ERA
Last Start: Senga went two innings in his last outing, allowing one hit, a home run, while striking out three and walking one in a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1.
Jack Flaherty (0-1) with a 6.75 ERA
Last Start: Flaherty struggled in Game 2 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, going 5 1/3 innings while allowing four earned runs on five hits while striking out two and walking one in a loss.
Playoff Stats: Flaherty has had some mixed results in the postseason, going 1-3 with a 3.60 ERA over five appearances throughout his career in the postseason.
Here are the Mets-Dodgers NLCS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLCS Odds: Mets-Dodgers Game 1 Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-164)
Moneyline: +136
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+136)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How to Watch Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1
Time: 8:16 PM ET/5:16 PM PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
- The Mets are 2-1 in their past three NLCS appearances.
- The Mets are 9-6 over 15 career playoff games with the Dodgers.
- Francisco Lindor is batting .320 with eight hits, two home runs, six RBIs, and four runs over six games against the Dodgers this season.
Senga is the starter for Game 1, as noted below. The pressure is on for the young starter to go longer than his last outing. Senga is facing the Dodgers for the second time in his career. Significantly, he went six innings while allowing one earned run and four hits while striking out nine in his last time against the boys in blue. Senga hopes to utilize his ghost fork pitch. Additionally, he looks to maximize his fastball and raise the velocity from 94.3 MPH, which he averaged in his last outing.
The bullpen has awakened, starting with closer Edwin Diaz. Remarkably, he bounced back after a blown save in Game 2 with a standout performance to shut down the series. Diaz struck out Kody Clemens with a 98.7 MPH fastball before getting Brandon Marsh to pop up. Finally, he struck out Kyle Schwarber with a 101.1 MPH fastball to win the game.
Lindor has been solid in these playoffs, with one home run, six RBIs, and six runs. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso has done exceptionally well, batting .300 with three home runs, six RBIs, and five runs through seven playoff games. Brandon Nimmo has also hit well, hitting .286 with one home run, seven RBIs, and seven runs over seven playoff games. However, the standout player has been Mark Vientos, who is hitting .563 with two home runs, seven RBIs, and six runs, including a two-home run game in Game 2.
The Mets will cover the spread if they continue clobbering the baseball and driving runners home. Then, they need a good outing from Senga and the bullpen to continue pitching well.
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Why The Dodgers Will Cover The Spread/Win
- The Dodgers went 4-2 against the Mets this season.
- Shohei Ohtani is batting .361 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and 11 runs over 10 games against the Mets throughout his career.
- Freddie Freeman is hitting .303 with 31 home runs, 129 RBIs, and 118 runs over 207 games against the Mets throughout his career.
The Dodgers have tossed 24 consecutive shutout innings. Remarkably, they did not allow a single leadoff hitter in Game 5. The bullpen has had some standout players. Significantly, Alex Vesia, Landon Knack, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Blake Treinen have all tossed shutout innings in their appearances. Treinen notched two saves in the series, including the closing outs of Game 5.
The Dodgers have not hit the ball consistently well. Yet, Teoscar Hernandez and Kike Hernandez both clocked solo home runs to help give Los Angeles all they needed. Shohei Ohtani has surprisingly struggled, batting only .200 with one home run, four RBIs, and seven runs. Likewise, Mookie Betts is hitting just .222 with two home runs, three RBIs, and four runs.
The Dodgers will cover the spread if they can cobble together some hits. Then, they need the pitching staff to continue to hit their pitches and get hitters out.
Final Mets-Dodgers Game 1 Prediction & Pick
The Mets are 6-1 against the run line in the postseason, while the Dodgers are 4-1. Additionally, the Mets are 4-1 against the run line on the road in the playoffs, while the Dodgers are 2-1 at home.
Both teams have done a lot to get here. But the Mets have impressed me more with their resilience. Plus, they have a lineup that can clobber some hits together. Expect the Mets to find a way to cover the spread in Game 1.
Final Mets-Dodgers Game 1 Prediction & Pick: New York Mets +1.5 (-164)
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